Markets weighed down by weak consumer outlook as oil jumps on Iran tensions

Global markets today are being pulled in two directions: concern about consumer spending after weak guidance from retail giant Walmart, and rising energy shares as oil prices climb on escalating tensions with Iran. Walmart’s softer outlook is pressuring major U.S. indices and weighing on global risk sentiment. Even though the company beat last quarter’s earnings and sales expectations, its forecast for profit growth came in below what Wall Street was expecting. Because Walmart is a bellwether for everyday consumer demand, its cautious guidance is raising worries that consumer spending could slow, which in turn could dampen broader economic and earnings growth. This has contributed to a modest pullback in key U.S. benchmarks after recent gains, and that cautious tone can spill over into global equity markets. At the same time, geopolitical risk in the Middle East is pushing oil prices higher, providing support to the energy sector worldwide. Heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and signals of possible military action, are fueling fears of potential disruptions to oil supply routes, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are up around 2%, and energy stocks are outperforming as investors anticipate stronger cash flows for oil producers if elevated prices persist. While this is positive for energy shares and some commodity-linked markets, it also raises concerns about higher input costs and inflation pressures for the broader global economy if the situation escalates. Overall, the market tone is mixed: cautious to bearish around consumer and broader growth expectations due to Walmart’s outlook, but more constructive for energy-related assets as oil prices rise on geopolitical risk. Investors are likely to focus today on how these opposing forces balance out—whether worries about consumer demand and potential future growth slowdowns outweigh the near-term boost to energy and commodity-linked sectors.