AI disruption fears and new U.S. tariffs keep global markets on edge

Global stock markets today are likely to be driven by lingering concerns over AI-related disruption in traditional software and IT services, renewed uncertainty around U.S. trade tariffs, and a cautious wait-and-see stance ahead of key U.S. economic data and major earnings. First, anxiety about how rapidly advancing artificial intelligence could disrupt legacy software and IT systems is weighing on overall risk appetite. A viral research scenario highlighting how tools like Claude Code might accelerate the obsolescence of older programming languages such as COBOL has already triggered sharp selling in major enterprise technology and payments names, including large declines in IBM, SAP, and Adyen. While these are individual stocks, the broader implication is that investors are reassessing the long‑term profitability and pricing power of established software and IT service providers in an AI‑driven world. This sector-wide repricing is feeding into global equity indices, especially those with heavy exposure to technology and financial infrastructure, and is contributing to elevated volatility. Second, renewed tariff uncertainty following fresh U.S. global duties is adding another layer of pressure to global markets. Higher or less predictable trade barriers can disrupt supply chains, raise input costs, and dampen cross‑border investment, which in turn can weigh on corporate earnings expectations across multiple regions and sectors. This is affecting not just equities but also currencies and commodities, as investors reassess growth prospects and inflation risks in an environment of potentially more fragmented global trade. Finally, overall market sentiment remains fragile, with volatility already elevated—reflected in a higher VIX level coming into today—and investors are positioning cautiously ahead of upcoming U.S. consumer confidence data and closely watched earnings from a major AI bellwether, Nvidia. These events are seen as key tests of risk appetite: stronger‑than‑expected consumer data or upbeat AI‑related earnings could help stabilize sentiment, while disappointments may reinforce the current risk‑off tone. As a result, trading today is likely to feature choppy moves, with global indices reacting to any new information that either eases or amplifies concerns about AI disruption, trade policy, and the durability of the economic cycle.