Nvidia’s AI earnings signal and key macro data set the tone for global markets today

Global markets today are being driven primarily by a pivotal earnings report from Nvidia, alongside key macroeconomic and political events that could shift risk sentiment across regions. The main focus is Nvidia’s fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings, which are seen as a critical barometer for the entire artificial intelligence (AI) and broader technology complex. Because Nvidia is the dominant supplier of chips used to power AI infrastructure and large language models, its results and guidance will heavily influence expectations for future AI investment, corporate tech spending, and overall growth sentiment. Markets are highly concentrated in AI-related stocks, so any upside or downside surprise in Nvidia’s outlook could trigger large moves not only in tech but in global equity indices more broadly. Investors will pay close attention to management commentary on the durability of AI demand, potential supply constraints, and any signs of slowing orders or pricing pressure. Given peers like AMD and Microsoft have already reported strong AI-related demand, the baseline expectation is positive, but the risk is elevated because positioning is crowded and volatility around AI themes has been high. At the same time, several macro and policy events are shaping the backdrop for global risk assets. In the United States, scheduled remarks from President Trump could influence expectations around fiscal policy, regulation, trade, or geopolitical priorities. Any signals that affect growth prospects, inflation expectations, or policy stability may feed into equity, bond, and currency markets. In Europe, the release of euro area consumer price index (CPI) data will be closely watched for clues on the inflation path and the European Central Bank’s future interest-rate decisions. A softer inflation print could support a more accommodative policy outlook and be supportive for European and global equities, while a stronger reading could revive concerns about sticky inflation and higher-for-longer rates. Additionally, US crude oil inventory data will inform views on energy demand and supply tightness, influencing oil prices and, by extension, inflation expectations and sector performance in energy and related industries. These macro events are occurring against a backdrop of an ongoing rotation within equity markets. Investors have been gradually shifting from highly concentrated AI and mega-cap tech exposures toward industrials, consumer defensive, and energy stocks. This rotation reflects both profit-taking in crowded AI trades and a search for more balanced, less volatile sources of return. Today’s Nvidia report could either reinforce that rotation—if results or guidance disappoint and raise questions about AI sustainability—or temporarily reverse it if the company delivers strong numbers and a confident outlook that reassures investors about continued AI-driven growth. Overall, the combination of Nvidia’s earnings as a global tech and AI bellwether, key inflation data from the euro area, US political commentary, and energy market signals from crude inventories will set the tone for risk appetite, sector leadership, and volatility across global stock markets today.